The Regime’s Next Phase: The Fiscal Cliff, Election Chaos, Global War as a Reset Button—And Guantanamo as a Holding Pen for Dissent

We don’t know the future, but we can follow trends

Mar 03, 2025

As 2025 barrels forward, the regime’s strategy appears to be pushing the country to the breaking point, manufacturing a crisis so severe that it collapses opposition, entrenches executive power, and resets the geopolitical order. We are not claiming prophecy—these are the trends, maneuvers, and warning signs we see unfolding now. The fiscal cliff is being positioned as a kill switch for what remains of American governance. The midterms may be contested if a blue wave emerges, justifying federal intervention in state election processes. The Zelenskyy humiliation was the first act in the withdrawal of U.S. support for Ukraine—not to end the war, but to globalize it, enmesh Europe, and recreate the post-WWII model of U.S. economic dominance through controlled chaos.

Now, in a further escalation, Elon Musk—per Yarvin’s 2022 playbook, the annointed regime’s “shadow president”—has publicly endorsed calls to withdraw the U.S. from NATO and the U.N. This shift from domestic budget slashing to dismantling international commitments has been accompanied by a real legislative effort among Republican lawmakers to exit the U.N. altogether, reflecting the administration’s broader agenda. Adding to this whirlwind, Guantanamo Bay is being primed as a domestic internment site, first for migrants—then likely, we will argue, for anyone deemed an enemy of the state.

This piece continues from The American Republic is Over: How the Foreign Policy Establishment Failed to See the Endgame—if you haven’t read that, go ahead now—we’ll wait.

I. The Fiscal Cliff as the Trigger for Collapse

Starve the Government, Manufacture a Crisis

We anticipate that the Trump regime is preparing to engineer a financial catastrophe under the guise of “fiscal responsibility.” Key warning signs:

Deliberate Budget Sabotage
The House GOP has already passed a budget that extends tax cuts for the ultra-rich while blowing up the deficit, setting the stage for a manufactured funding shortfall. The debt ceiling fight later this year will provide the regime with an excuse to “shut it all down” unless Congress bends to their demands.
Weaponized Spending Freezes
Funding for infrastructure, disaster relief, and social services is being slow-walked or outright frozen by executive orders. The administration is defying court rulings on appropriated funds, ensuring the system functions so poorly that the regime can declare the federal government unworkable.
Collapse as a Justification for Emergency Powers
If the government “runs out of money” due to orchestrated sabotage, the regime can claim extraordinary executive measures are required: seizing state-controlled funds, overriding contracts, or even declaring a financial state of emergency. If Congress is so broken it cannot govern and enact in extreme form the very “extra-Constitutional” actions Vance has advocated.

█ What We May See:
Weeks of manufactured chaos as agencies stall, supply chains buckle under procurement freezes, and states scramble to plug funding gaps. The aim is to cripple opposition-led states, blame the crisis on “obstructionists,” and grant the president sweeping authority to fix the very mess he created.

II. Midterm Election Chaos: The Playbook for Contested Results

If the 2026 midterms yield a blue wave, we expect a full-scale federal intervention. The regime will not accept losing control of Congress. Instead, they will contest key results—building on the 2020 playbook, but now with unfettered White House power. If it comes to it, they may even determine thst Congress is “illegitimate” and declare it temporarily “suspended” while the system is “restored”.

How They May Contest a Democratic Victory

Selective Election Fraud Claims
They won’t dispute all outcomes—just enough in swing states to create a constitutional crisis. GOP legislatures could refuse certification in counties that vote against Trump-backed candidates.
DOJ “Investigations”
Under a veneer of “election integrity,” the Trump-controlled DOJ will investigate Democratic strongholds, halting certifications and fueling claims of illegitimacy.
Deploying Federal and Blackwater Forces for “Security”
The White House can dispatch the National Guard, Blackwater, or federal agents to “prevent unrest” in major blue cities, intimidating local officials and watchers in the certification process.
State-Level Power Struggles
Democratic governors forced into legal fights over final tallies. GOP-led legislatures or Trump-appointed judges might override tallies under the pretext of “irregularities.”
Indications for the House
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has warned against Putin, indicating he is currently out-of-step. We don’t expect this to last, but if it does, we can expect swift pretext for it to be dealt with aggressively.

█ What We May See:
Legal bedlam, ignored court rulings, and severe doubts about legitimacy. If enough certifications are delayed, it opens the door for congressional interventions or Supreme Court decisions to seat handpicked winners, regardless of actual vote margins. That said, GOP infighting over foreign and domestic policy could create unexpected roadblocks to a unified crackdown. The possibility of a suspension of the legislature is not off the table.

III. The Zelenskyy Meeting: The First Step in Globalizing the War

One thing is clear: the White House’s Feb. 28 humiliation of Zelenskyy was not a gaffe; it was a strategic pivot in U.S. foreign policy—a pretext to pull support from Ukraine in a manner that escalates the conflict, not ends it.

How the U.S. is Setting the Stage for a Wider War

Standing Down U.S. Cyber Warfare
Reports indicate that U.S. cyber operations protecting Ukraine’s networks have quietly ceased, letting Russia seize an advantage in electronic warfare.
Abdicating While Nudging Europe
By calling it “Europe’s war,” the regime ensures the conflict continues but shifts burdens to NATO allies. The objective is not immediate peace, but a prolonged war that drains U.S. competitors.
Recreating the Post-WWII Blueprint
The aim is a managed destruction scenario, letting Europe exhaust itself while the U.S. eventually emerges as arms dealer, energy supplier, and financial haven—just as after 1945.
“Shadow” President Musk’s recent call for the U.S. to leave NATO—and Republican lawmakers’ legislative push to leave the U.N.—further underscores the administration’s strategic retreat from multilateral commitments. By distancing itself from alliances, Washington can claim it’s “not our fight” while quietly orchestrating events that keep Europe on a destructive path, confirming the analysis besides the pundits has arrived at.

█ What We May See:
A precipitous drawdown of U.S. military backing for Ukraine, plus diplomatic pressure to force Europe to escalate on its own. This could spawn an energy crisis, topple pro-Ukraine governments, and cement an era of American profiteering on the sidelines—even as domestic Republicans fight among themselves over just how close they should be to Putin.

IV. The Supreme Court: A Crisis Trump is Actively Creating

Training the Roberts Court to Stay in Line—or Be Broken

Trump isn’t just claiming executive power—he’s ensuring that ignoring the courts won’t even register as a crisis.

Normalizing Defiance
By slow-walking or defying lower-court rulings on USAID funding, spending freezes, etc., the regime demonstrates that court orders have no inherent enforcement.
Forcing a Legitimacy Showdown
The White House’s direct appeals to the Supreme Court—skipping normal appellate steps—put Chief Justice Roberts in a bind. Either:
1. Back Trump, further eroding lower-court power, or
2. Rule against Trump, risk blatant defiance, and watch the Court’s authority shatter.
Future Defiance
If the Supreme Court eventually rules against a major Trump power-grab and is brazenly ignored, the judiciary’s credibility—and checks on executive authority—may collapse entirely.

Take note: House Speaker Mike Johnson has broken from Trump’s pro-Putin narrative, warning of a “new Axis”among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. This reveals internal GOP tension over foreign policy—so at least someone wasn’t read-in during what was surely Trump and Vance’s pre-Zelenskyy dress-rehearsal (cue flashback to a mockedup Oval Office on stage. Musk, Thiel, and Yarvin sit in the front row. A second Elon Musk is directing). If Republicans in Congress become divided (as Johnson’s remarks suggest), Trump’s reliance on a compliant Supreme Court grows even more urgent—he cannot risk losing allied judges or facing a robust legislative check from a fracturing GOP.

█ What We May See:
A Supreme Court too nervous to curb Trump’s extremes, effectively training itself to yield. The judiciary becomes just another extension of the presidency, no different than a docile Senate or a loyal cabinet—particularly if the regime cements a narrative that “international organizations and misguided courts” are obstacles to “America First.”

V. Guantanamo: The Internment Pipeline for Dissent

The regime’s plan to transfer 30,000 migrants to Guantanamo Bay makes little fiscal or logistical sense—unless you view it as a trial run for a future crackdown on domestic opposition.

Why Send Migrants to Guantanamo?

Logistical Nightmare
Offshore detention is costly and complex, but the administration is normalizing Guantanamo as a holding facility beyond typical legal oversight.
Establishing a Precedent
Once the public accepts that “outsiders” can be held indefinitely in Guantanamo, it’s a short step to including those who are legal immigrants, or who defy federal edicts on Immigration, or defy Washington more generally—walking the chain from “immigrants” to “dissidents”.
Building the Infrastructure
A facility geared for indefinite detention, minimal transparency, and limited legal recourse is perfect for controlling any population the regime deems threatening.

Guantanamo as the Future of Domestic Repression

Migrants First: “Non-citizens,” arguably with fewer constitutional protections, test the waters for indefinite detention offshore.
Legal Immigrants Who Resist: Immigration enforcement morphs into a tool against those who sue, protest, or publicly oppose deportations.
Citizens Caught in Overreach: Dual citizens, activists, or those helping migrants might be labeled “aiding illegal entry,” subject to the same indefinite offshore detention.
Dissidents: If Guantanamo is legally redefined to house “enemies of the state,” nothing stops the regime from consigning critics there, far from domestic legal scrutiny.

█ What We May See:
A creeping expansion of who’s eligible for “transfer” to Gitmo, framed as national security or immigration control. By the time people realize a facility built for terrorists is being used for everyday dissenters, it may be too late.

VI. What Must Be Done to Prepare

We do not claim to see the future with certainty—only to highlight patterns. If states, localities, and civic institutions act now, they can still blunt the oncoming storm whatever form it takes.

States Must Reinforce Their Own Budgets
The looming fiscal cliff means states should set aside emergency funds, develop alternative revenue streams, and prepare to operate with minimal federal assistance.
Safeguard Electoral Processes
Local election officials need robust backup plans: secure tallying systems, legal teams ready for federal interference, and cross-state compacts to monitor and defend certifications. GOP splits may reduce some of the White House’s leverage, but not if states are caught unprepared.
Build Legal & Infrastructure Coalitions
Coalitions of attorneys general can sue en masse to block overreach, while interstate agreements on infrastructure, supply chains, and law enforcement can circumvent federal sabotage.
Expose & Resist Guantanamo Normalization
Public awareness must be raised now, before “shipping migrants off to Gitmo” becomes routine. Officials and civil society should demand transparency, oversight, and explicit legal protections for any detainees.
Strengthen Courts Where Possible
Encouraging state supreme courts and local judges to hold the line can mitigate the effect of a compromised federal judiciary. If the U.S. Supreme Court yields, local judicial systems may be the last stand for rule of law.

█ Bottom Line:
This is not idle conjecture—it’s one compelling extension to what’s already happening. The question is whether states, communities, and individuals will mobilize in time to maintain a semblance of lawful governance, or stand by while the regime’s crisis playbook becomes an irreversible fait accompli.

Final Warning: Control Through Crisis

Every maneuver the regime makes aims to generate a crisis it alone can “resolve”: undermining elections, bankrupting government, sidelining the judiciary, inflaming foreign wars, and now turning Guantanamo into a blueprint for domestic internment. By orchestrating disasters, the administration claims the power to address them on its own terms.

Yet there is still time—so long as states, municipalities, and organized civil society refuse to comply prematurely. If they prepare alternative systems of governance, challenge illegal orders in mass lawsuits, and speak out against the creeping normalization of indefinite detention, they can stop the final consolidation of executive authority.

The administration is accelerating toward its unknowable final form. As important as that unknown, however, is the question: will state leaders step forward to stop it before the plan is complete?

Radical Federalism

Discussion about this post